The great American awakening of the 2030s
I believe we are living historic times, and yes aren’t we always?, times that will force a radical change for the next 80-100 years of the American life, and by reflection, the world.
What am I talking about?
There are many signs of the shift but we are so caught in the endless newscycle of breaking news (the only thing that is breaking is your attention span btw) it’s hard to put it into focus, I also believe that an external viewpoint (I am not an American, nor living in the US) helps crystallise what would be all too emotional and personal if directly affected by it. I will put few words next, how do you instinctively react to it?
- jan6
- covid
- ICE
These are highly opinionated and emotional events, why?
Why are Americans so publicly divided on these?
What is the centrist point of view on those?
The crisis of the last 20 years
Many words and articles and books have been written on the subject, the shorthand is, since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, we entered a massive crisis where:
- our institutions and models no longer work
Capitalism? Socialise the losses
Education? No guarantee of social mobility
Social life? Replaced by algorithms - individual freedoms, the rule of law and traditions have been curbed by emergency powers on a regular basis
- conflict is on the rise
Class conflict - eat the rich
Generational conflict - boomer-hate / gen Z work ethics
Political conflict - BLM / Jan6
A short summary to tell us: things are not like they used to, things are not like we thought they are, and it has been like that for a long time (close to 20 years). A whole generation was born and raised in this Crisis, a generation that will be the most pragmatical, cynical and survival focus we have saw since young boys were fighting in the Russian winter of the 40s to decide which idea of future will survive (turns out neither and both).
The end of the crisis
Crisis don't end in a whisper, they end with a bang (literally). Historically we see external war (conquest / defense) as the most common unifying event, followed by internal war (civil) and last a major unifying shock (economic reset, pandemic, technological shock).
The what doesn't really matter, is the why, why these things bring an end to the crisis?
It's because afterwards a new order is formed, an order that will be recognised and supported by everyone (most).
You don't come to that kind of shared vision without some terrible event that demands unity in the face of death and annihilation.
This is why I don't believe covid was a end of crisis event, the world has emerged more fragmented, not less. Society has emerged more polarised and less united than ever, it simply doesn't fit the bill.
Predictions are for charlatans
Look, no one really knows what this event will be or when it will, we are just talking probabilities and superimposing a subjective cyclical model of modern history.
I will say that the event seems to be, either:
- an external war where China makes a push to become the regional hegemonic power of Asia
US will need to decide if it takes sides, and then win or lose, the result will be a clear and final before/after view of history. - an internal war where States will make a bid for secession from the US
The escalating divide in American politics will make it impossible to govern a politically and geographically fractured electorate, federal power will be seen as partisan, or even foreign, and States will push back, first politically, then by deploying forces - the outcome of that fight will be a clear before/after view of history.
The awakening
From the amber of that fight a new way of seeing the world, who we are, how we interact, what are our duties to each others, will be formed and influence the next 100 years.
I hope lending you my lenses will help in making sense of some of the news you see, when ICE is out there shooting people, and people are out there protesting ICE knowing they can get shot, it talks of something bigger, something that gets lost when we focus on the victim of the day, or the political statement of the day, and we don't see how it adds another paving stone on the road to an inescapable singular resolution.
Be ready to adopt a new belief system, what will come cannot be what was and knowing things will change is half the journey done.